New Mexico – KirkClay.com

By Kirk Clay

This Campaign Was Not About “Blue State” Voter Mobilization

Pundits across the country are in full speculation mode that Chris Christie’s re-election may illuminate

the path for Republicans to recapture the White House in 2016. Having been deeply involved in New Jersey elections for the past year, we talked to our colleagues on the ground to get their take on just what the Christie win really means.

Was this the début of the GOP’s “minority outreach” program? Or was this just the latest battle in the civil war between Tea Party activists and establishment Republicans? After evaluating the results of last Tuesday’s election, it’s possible that the answer is yes.

With less than 38% turnout—a record low for New Jersey Governor races – this campaign was obviously not about “Blue State” voter mobilization. Therefore, the outcome doesn’t have a single driving factor but rather multiple interwoven themes that articulate a much more fluid set of dynamics.

To put this race in context, let’s start at the finish line. Given the enormous vote gap for Chris Christie’s win (60% – 38%), this race was clearly driven by his Super Storm Sandy response. Christie used public funds to remind voters of this “911” moment the entire campaign, giving him impenetrable political armor that prevented Senator Barbara Buono from exposing his biggest weaknesses – policies not personality.

For example, while exit polls report that “the economy” mattered most to voters and nearly half (49%) considered this in deciding how they would cast their ballot, 59% said the condition of New Jersey’s economy is “not so good / poor.” In fact, New Jersey’s unemployment rate of 8.5% has outpaced the national average since Christie took office.

It’s important to note that Christie’s personal popularity is sharply at odds with where the majority of New Jersey voters are on the issues. Note that there is a clear contrast between Christie’s conservative posture and the values of his state. For instance, his “Blue State” constituents favored a court ruling legalizing same-sex marriage in New Jersey (60% to 38%) yet he forcefully spoke out against it. This was never a problem for him because there was no progressive entity to hold him accountable including Senator Buono who was out raised $2.7 million to Christie’s $13.2 million. Likewise he was not held accountable for 1) his veto of legislation to raise the minimum-wage, 2) teacher pension cuts, 3) a woman’s right to choose, 4) gun control, and 5) a weak climate control stance.

Giving him a pass on these issues became self-inflected wounds for Democrats and progressives:

57% of the New Jersey’s women voted for Chris Christie
51% of Latinos and 21% of African Americans voted for the Governor, an increase over previous elections
49% of those who support same sex marriage voted for Chris Christie
46% of union households supported Chris Christie
32% of self-identified Democrats voted for Chris Christie
31% of self-described liberals supported Chris Christie

There is strong evidence that there would’ve been a different outcome if Democrats truly contested this race. Specifically, a Democrat like Cory Booker—with resources for a GOTV operation and high name recognition—would have likely defeated Christie. His candidacy would have impacted down ballot in majority People of Color (POC) cities like Atlantic – that just elected a Republican mayor.

Moving forward, how might this help Christie get through the primaries in 2016? The truth is that Citizen’s United has significantly changed the primary process. Remember in 2012, most political “experts” were scratching their heads trying to figure out when Rick Santorum would suspend his campaign. The answer came after his financial backer stopped paying for airplane tickets to primary states. It’s important to note that he agreed to step down only after delegate rich states were completely out of reach.

With states like California, New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania traditionally holding late primary dates—and already leaning towards a Christie candidacy—something tells me that Christie will have plenty of money for airplane tickets to compete through May.

What should progressives start thinking about? A way to win more Voters of Color (VOC) through persuasion versus the splintering that occurred in New Jersey. This could be key — given the fact that “Operation ChristiCrats” may garner a larger pool of the Democrats’ traditional base. We may have to consolidate and expand the base including youth, white women, people of color and progressives. Looking at this from a demographic perspective — using New Jersey’s recent Governor’s race where the electorate was 15% African American, 9% Latino, and 3% Asian — voters of Color can have tremendous impact as long as they receive the “right message from a trusted messenger.”

Of course, Christie’s performance doesn’t guarantee that he will easily walk into the White House. Nevertheless, his electoral success in a “Blue State” details a path for Republicans that may become a game changer. This also indicates that, contrary to popular thought, they are working to fix their cultural blind spots. Note that it’s no accident New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez joined Christie for a pre-Election Day tour or Senator Buono was hit with a Shaq attack so close to election day.

The truth is that no one knows what will happen in the next two years, but it’s well documented that candidates like Governor Christie have the ability to create openings for their team by breaking through voting blocks and separating voters from their interests. If we neglect to invest in institutions that hold those blocks together we could be witnessing the next big electoral change.

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Kirk Clay is Senior Advisor at PowerPAC

By Kirk Clay

Will Voters of Color Take Advantage of Their New Influence In Congress?

There are certainly plenty of reasons for America to celebrate the beginning of 2013. First, January is the month we recognize Martin Luther King Jr’s Birthday. Second, January represents a time in American history when President Abraham Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclamation. And finally next month we will witness the second inauguration of the nation’s first African American President.

This inauguration reminds us that in order to realize our dreams, we have to participate! A few weeks ago voters of color (VOC) joined other Americans to decide how the government will address the most pressing issues of our times. As the result of dramatic demographic changes, voters of color made the difference in many areas around the country—electing candidates to office who now have the political support to embrace progressive policies. These voters have become the leverage elected officials need to keep campaign promises and support an agenda that will have a far reaching impact on this nation.

In short, the next four years is about more than just a mandate. It is about who voted and the role they are going to play in politics. Much like the Tea Party in 2010, the new coalition of progressive whites, Latinos, African Americans, Asians, Native Americans, women, youth and unions are poised to change the way America invests in the economy, extracts and repurposes revenue, and ensures that the government continues to expand democracy to everyone living in America.

Also, the 113th Congress will have over 18 new members of color joining other progressive Congress members to shape our legislative process. They’re coming from states with significant VOC populations like California, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, and Texas.

So how will this affect Congress next year? The majority of the 18 new members are from districts where Democrats received outsized support from progressive whites and VOC in key precincts. This support from voters will help Congress members offset most of the political deficits they could face while compromising and deal making next year. This makes it difficult for the other side to sustain an obstructionist strategy without publically appearing to be “sore losers.”

Moreover, the President has the bully pulpit. Just like in the 2012 campaign, the new coalition of progressive voters makes it possible to expand the political map at critical points in the legislative cycle. For example, President Obama’s support in California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico will be a legislative firewall during the immigration negotiations. Simply put, a party will not survive in this new political landscape if it loses favorability from VOC by a 3 to 1 margin.

In the end, we have to remind ourselves that all politics are local. Any party that had success reaching unique pockets of voters during the 2012 campaign will have an advantage in 2013. They can easily overwhelm the other side by amplifying this new coalition’s influence. All it would take is a combination of traditional civic engagement tactics with 21st century data-driven technology. This strategy of micro-targeting voters by specific issues was used in Ohio and proved to be clutch—it delivered a powerful victory for the progressive coalition. For example, the VOC vote share increased to 19% of the 2012 electorate from 16% in 2008.

It’s time to get ready for the New Year, the new Congress, the new coalition of progressive voters and another historic moment. On January 21^st America honors Martin Luther King, Jr. as the world witnesses the inauguration of President Obama. It will also be a defining moment for people of color. For the first time since the passage of the Voting Rights Act, their votes had a profound influence on the political landscape of America. We now have a President who has the opportunity to govern with a more forward set of strategies. This makes it easier for us to support the policies we believe in. That’s popping the clutch.

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Kirk Clay is Senior Advisor at PowerPac

Trend Setting Election for Voters of Color, New Strategies That Work (kirkclay.com)

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