Republican – Page 5 – KirkClay.com

MEGA-MARCHERS SOON TO BE MEGA-VOTERS

By Kirk Clay

Election 2014 Will Be Next Demonstration For America’s Rising Electorate

The Latino community came out in extraordinary numbers for the “Comprehensive Immigration Reform March.” It was also remarkable to see so many progressive whites and People of Color (POC) exercising their First Amendment right. As Reverend Joseph E. Lowery would say “You could almost see America expand the franchise before your eyes.”

People of all races and religions came from every corner of this nation to give their time, talent, and resources for a noble cause – helping their neighbor. During the March’s aftermath, this same coalition will undoubtedly come together to push through commonsense, compassionate, and comprehensive immigration reform. After that, they will stay together to fight future issues like disenfranchisement, voting rights retrogression, racial profiling, and discriminatory employment practices. Because midterm elections are influential in underlining national issues, 2014 will present a new opportunity for this rising electorate to vote their interest.

The month of March has affected Washington in a big way, bringing even more electoral momentum to an already high powered movement. As we saw in 2012, enthusiasm levels in communities of color tend to drive political activity at the state and local levels too. The next election will probably be a deliberate continuation of this trend. Just like the righteous issues of the past, immigration reform may be the flame that ignites massive voter registration and epic midterm turnout.

So who will benefit from this new political energy? It seems that the Democrats are in the best position at this point. A strong Latino performance in 2012 has moved more than 12 Democrat swing seats to the safe column. Also, people of color (POC) helped to make 152 Democrat districts safer per districts of influence – Congressional districts that are not necessarily majority minority but have enough diversity to effect the election. This will free up resources for challenging a sizable portion of the GOP’s 30 swing seats and capturing the 17 seats needed to flip the House.

No one can be absolutely sure what will happen in November 2014 but it should be understood that the GOP will face a contextual impasse. Their party is dominated by Tea Party ideologues that are out of touch with the rest of America. As the latest Gallup poll shows:

7-in-10 (69%) Americans would vote for a law to allow undocumented immigrants a chance to become U.S. citizens.
More than 7-in-10 (73%) Democrats and Democratic Leaners would vote for an earned path to citizenship.
42% of Republicans and Republican Leaners would vote against an earned path to citizenship.

The bottom-line is that the GOP is now caught between deportation and amnesty – the wrong move could cost them the House. Take Nevada’s 3^rd Congressional district where the demographics are 16% Latino, 6% African American, and 12% Asian. The President won this district with close to 50% of the vote and the GOP Congressman failed to get a clear majority of the vote. All it would take is one “47% style” comment or a “bad vote” and this may be his last term.

It’s ironic how obstructionist public policy created this political environment. Meaning, the landscape is what it is today because of the policies embraced in the past. Looking forward, it’s evident that this election will be about legislators channeling their patriotic spirit to understand more compassionately, share more generously, and legislate more unselfishly. It’s unmistakable that they have concentrated on obstruction too long and now it’s time to focus on improving the future quality of life for all Americans.

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Kirk Clay is Senior Advisor at PowerPAC

MEGA-MARCHERS SOON TO BE MEGA-VOTERS | Create infographics

YOUNG VOTERS OF COLOR MAY DO IT AGAIN IN 2014

Kirk Clay

Hit With The Sequester, Young Voters May Give An Encore Performance

Young voters played a significant role in Obama’s 2012 victory, helping him sweep all four battleground states—Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Nevada—with 60% of the youth vote. Nationwide, voters under the age of 30 made up a large share of the overall electorate, representing 19% of all voters, an increase from their share in 2008.

As we move towards the 2014 midterms, we see signs of a repeat “high-water mark” performance. Already young voters have been extremely vocal on progressive issues like immigration reform, gun violence, and marriage equality. Fueled by the power of social media tools like Twitter and Facebook in politics, the youth electorate’s role is beginning to solidify. According to 2012 exit polls, young voters expressed more progressive attitudes on a range of issues—from gay marriage to the role of the federal government—than other voters. They are the only age group in which a majority said that the government should do more to solve problems. Additionally, they are the most racially and ethnically diverse age group with over 40% currently being voters of color (VOC).

The stage is now set for the next act and it looks like the same play with a slightly different cast. It’s true that next year’s election will not have a leading man reciting “47%” lines. However, Romney’s performance was so memorable that similar lines may haunt GOP candidates in youth districts of influence – Congressional districts that are not necessarily majority minority but have enough diversity to effect the election.

Take the “sequester” fight for example. To most young VOC this seems to be an extension of the “Makers- vs – Takers” campaign. First, almost all young people in poverty will be affected by the “sequester.” Second, most of these voters fall into the “47%” grouping. Lastly, Congress recently approved a modification to the “sequester” that includes education cuts – federal loans, grants and work-study aid which have a greater impact on young voters.

The larger implications for election 2014 are clear, especially in battleground states like Florida where Leon and Franklin counties have high poverty and unemployment rates. It’s going to be hard for the GOP to persuade young VOC that “spending cuts” are good for their county. This is especially true in a college town Congressional district like Florida’s 2^nd, where the demographics are 5% Latino, 24% African American, and 2% Asian. Note that this district has a significant young VOC population and President Obama received close to a majority of the vote in 2012.

The truth is, the GOP brand is taking a beating and the political environment is changing in states like Florida. As a matter of fact, Republicans are having an identity crisis while the Democrats are securing their image as champions of the Middleclass. This actuality is magnified on campuses like Florida A&M.

Looking towards 2014, it seems that 2012 was a trend setting year in politics. Young voters are continuing to move away from the GOP and increasingly support Democrats. If they continue to be engaged at a high degree, register to vote at healthy levels, and support commonsense candidates – then 2014 may look a lot like the 2006 midterm elections. If young voters stand up for what they believe in and fight for what they believe is right, they will bring new energy to Washington.

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Kirk Clay is Senior Advisor at PowerPAC

YOUNG VOTERS OF COLOR MAY DO IT AGAIN IN 2014 | Infographics

THE RISING ELECTORATE MAY FLIP THE RED HOUSE TO BLUE

By Kirk Clay

Evidence Based Data Shows a Tectonic Shift In The Political Landscape

I attended a meeting of political leaders recently and someone raised a point that struck me as insightful. The comment, “It’s sad to say but the GOP hasn’t made any progress in reducing their enormous cultural blind spots,” was referring to Jeb Bush. Recently he described a path to citizenship as an affront to our legal system.

The point made by the political leader was that this statement sounds like self-deportation to most progressive whites and People of Color (POC). While that might not have been the intent, this is the exact “dog whistle” that not only turned off Latino voters in 2012 but helped turn them out in historic numbers. This time, it may not only cost the GOP eight seats in the House but the majority.

In 2012, the Democrats won over 1 million more votes than Republicans nationally and took out eleven Tea Party members from the class of 2010. If this trend holds, the 2014 midterm election will look a lot like 2006. The Democrats, powered by the new rising electorate, could produce the 17 seat gain that flips the House.

It’s hard to miss the facts explaining this tectonic shift in the political landscape:

Over 6 percent of GOP House members are representing districts won by President Obama; there are more than 17 GOP members in susceptible districts.
Redistricting has placed a significant number of Voters of Color (VOC) in 223 districts of influence – Congressional districts that are not necessarily majority minority but have enough diversity to effect the election.
A number of these districts of influence are Republican and “ideologically” hostile to VOC. This may boomerang and drive progressive voters to enthusiastically express their discontent.
GOP House members no longer have the 2010 “obstruction card” to play. They have played that card a few times before and this electorate is inoculated so the conservative vote share may drop to 2006 levels next year.

It’s not just that many of these POC districts of influence were fluid last year; it’s that the President won many of these districts in a hyper partisan environment. That’s probably why Virginia GOP House member Scott Rigell didn’t hesitate to join the President on stage during the contentious economic fight. His district, which President Obama won with over 50% of the vote, is 6% Latino, 21% African American, and close to 5% Asian.

I believe that forecasting election results are about more than knowing past statistics. It’s also about identifying where voting trends meet demographics.

It is true that the current political landscape is hyper polarized and the last redraw packed Republican districts to be smaller and whiter. That just means the fundamentals will solidify faster and there will be fewer surprises.

This also means the opportunities in POC districts of influence have become prime openings for good candidates with commonsense messages to breakthrough. Regardless of race, religion, or political affiliation, if the electorate is engaged with the right message, a good candidate, and a voter registration campaign – Congress may soon feel this epic POC electoral impact.

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Kirk Clay is Senior Advisor at PowerPAC

HOPE DESERVES A SIMPLE VOTE, NOT ANOTHER SHOWDOWN

By Kirk Clay

Washington’s Political Gridlock Can Become A Self-inflicted Wound

For months there have been endless warnings of the economic, military, and societal decay that will take effect if obstructionists in Congress repeat their 2012 “do-nothing” tactics. Their political roadblocks now extend past traditionally non-partisan issues like infrastructure spending to include Presidential appointments. Without question, the class of 2010 has spent too much time fighting the commonsense proposals of a twice elected President that has the overwhelming support of the American public. This reminds me of something my grandpa would say – “Son, this seems like a long hot walk for a short drink.”

One of the most egregious recent examples of this obstruction has nothing to do with past political inaction but everything to do with the future of voter empowerment. As the President pointed out in his State of the Union speech, Americans like 102-year-old Desline Victor waited hours to cast her ballot in 2012. It’s a shame that 49 years after the 24^th amendment banned the discriminatory practice of the poll tax people of color (POC) are still saying “we deserve a simple vote.” What’s more troubling is that even the Republican’s brightest leader who is a person of color refused to mention the Voter Empowerment Act – a bill that would ensure equal access to the ballot box for all Americans – in his response to the State of the Union speech. In fact, he barely mentioned immigration reform.

It’s unacceptable that Latinos and African Americans waited an average of 20 minutes to cast their ballot in the 2012 election. That’s nearly twice as long as whites. It’s even more astonishing that nothing is being done in states like New Jersey and Virginia that have a contested race for Governor this year. A New York Times/CBS News poll points out that voters in Virginia waited an average of 23.6 minutes to vote. Also, thousands may have left the polls without voting.

It’s no wonder that people of color are voting for Democrats more these days. Just look at the Asian American (API) vote for example. Their national vote share has ballooned from 2% of votes cast in 2004 to 3% in 2012. Moreover, the API citizen voting-age population (CVAP) is now over 3% and their support for Democrats increased from 56% in ’04 to 73% in ’12. In 1992, President William Clinton only received 31% of their vote.

What does this mean for Congress? Will the rising electorate of progressive whites, Latinos, African Americans, Asians, Native Americans, unions, and young voters force Congressional extremists to change their obstructionist ways? As people of color begin to exert their political influence, will these self-inflicted wounds help the Democrats flip the Red House to Blue in 2014?

No one knows for sure but President Obama did win a bunch of Republican congressional districts in 2012. In particular, he won New Jersey’s CD 2 with over 53% of the vote in both ’08 and ’12. This seat has over 100,000 voters of color fired up and ready to vote at a moment’s notice. We also see the potential impact in upstate Bergen County where over 25% of the eligible voters are not registered. The population in this county, which includes Hackensack, has grown 2.4% to 905,116 residents and is now 6% African American, 16% Latino, and 14% Asian Pacific Islander. This is a significant factor given that Hackensack has over 14,000 “key” voters of color and precincts like Hackensack 2-01 could be a bellwether.

As we move forward, the work of authentic leaders like New Jersey’s Cory Booker will play a significant role in helping to shape the electoral landscape. If passed, the Voter Empowerment Act will improve our electoral process by decreasing barriers to voting. However, as election reform results begin to run parallel with the level of progressive civic participation, expect an increase in the effort to obstruct these policies. The only cure for this form of politics is hope and change.

What many politicians don’t understand is that in order to inspire voters they have to embrace hope. In fact, it’s probably the only way to survive in this new political environment. We now see Americans feeling better about the direction of the country and rejecting the dark clouds of the past. The old strategy of “do-nothing” is wearing thin on this electorate’s patience. As voters become hopeful they tend to want more. They want more from their leaders, and deserve more than the usual dysfunction– they deserve a simple vote. That’s popping the clutch.

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Kirk Clay is Senior Advisor at PowerPAC

CALL TO THE RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE: IT’S IN YOUR HANDS

By Kirk Clay

President Obama & Cory Booker Represent More Than The Turning of the Tide

There were many uplifting moments last week for progressive whites, young people, women, and people of color. The week was filled with energetic political events, parades, and plenty of moments that did more than entertain, they inspired.

Looking forward, the progressive network now has a unique opportunity to expand, deepen and strengthen its proven game-changing system which turns out record levels of voters of color (VOC). As demonstrated in 2012, these VOC have the power to elect candidates — including African Americans — to the mayor’s office, state capitals, U.S. Congress and the White House. On the horizon is the important 2014 mid-term elections where candidates of color are poised to become U.S. Senators if this voter power is tapped.

Newark Mayor Cory Booker represents a perfect example of what can happen in 2014. His state of New Jersey — once known as the “pathway of the revolution” is still a symbol of patriotism. Booker’s use of twitter to rescue a freezing dog was an example of this new pathway. It demonstrated how new media, politics, and old fashion values can create a new brand of social patriotism.
New Jersey has experienced significant demographic changes which has impacted its political environment. The state has the seventh largest Latino population in the United States. Nearly 25% of NJ’s registered voters are VOC with the majority of them Democrats. Among voters who are not registered, about 33% are people of color. That means close to 32% of New Jersey’s low propensity voters are VOC.

How does the fact that voters of color constitute a significant vote share affect New Jersey politics? One example is Mayor Booker doing well against other possible candidates for the 2014 U.S. Senate race. A new poll by PowerPAC.org shows New Jersey Democrats overwhelming supporting Mr. Booker over Rep. Frank Pallone, Rep. Rob Andrews, and State Senate President Steven Sweeney. New Jersey voters want to elect Cory Booker to the U.S. Senate by a margin of two to one. The poll also confirmed that Booker would easily defeat incumbent Senator Frank Lautenberg.
What’s driving his numbers? The poll shows Booker’s advantages holding across geography, populations, and issues. Also, his social media savvy helps to keep his brand strong and get his message out. As mentioned above, after seeing a tweet about a freezing dog, Booker took immediate action to rescue man’s best friend. That kind of social patriotism resonates strongly with voters.
By contrast, Pallone, Sweeney and Andrews, are not very well-known among the state’s registered Democrats, despite Pallone and Andrews having represented NJ in Congress for over two decades each, and Sweeney leading the state’s legislature.

Understanding the nature of VOC civic engagement is essential in today’s new political landscape. In the past, authenticity may have been a second tier concern but it has become the loadstone of demographic politics. Appealing to pockets of VOC was once relegated to the campaign’s “base vote” operation. Now it has become the soul of tactical electoral strategy. Campaigns are beginning to understand that the most effective way to expand the electorate and mobilize communities of color are with conduits that intimately understand those communities.

There are a few ways to ensure that VOC achieve their 31% vote share from the past election. The common denominator is the candidate. Every political leader must engage communities of color with authenticity and social patriotism. For some, embracing the new realities of politics will require them to change. Overtime they will find it easier to step outside of their comfort zones and themselves. Then their actions will make a difference for others as well as themselves because it is the responsible thing to do. That’s popping the clutch.

Poll results can be found here. (“PowerPAC Poll on NJ Senate Race (PowerPoint File) PowerPAC”)

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Kirk Clay is Senior Advisor at PowerPac

NEW JERSEY’S RISING ELECTORATE, READY TO VOTE

By Kirk Clay

Image representing Cory Booker as depicted in ... — Image via CrunchBase

Booker Leads Pallone & Sweeney by More Than 2 to 1 for Lautenberg’s Seat

Washington, D.C. – In a new poll released today by PowerPAC.org, New Jersey Democrats are expressing overwhelming support for Cory Booker as their next U.S. Senator over potential rival candidates Rep. Frank Pallone, Rep. Rob Andrews, and State Senate President Steven Sweeney. By a margin of two to one, New Jersey voters want to elect Cory Booker to the U.S. Senate.

PowerPAC’s also poll confirmed that Booker would easily defeat incumbent Senator Frank Lautenberg. Booker’s advantages hold across geography, populations, and issues, according to N.J. Democratic voters. “The population of New Jersey closely mirrors the Rising American Electorate of progressive whites, young people, women, and people of color,” said Steve Phillips, Chair of PowerPAC.org, “and this poll shows that the people of New Jersey clearly want Mayor Booker to become Senator Booker in 2014.”

Pallone, Sweeney and Andrews, according to the poll, are not very well-known among the state’s registered Democrats, despite Pallone and Andrews having represented NJ in Congress for over two decades each, and Sweeney leading the state’s legislature. Those registered voters who do have an opinion on 11-term Member of Congress Frank Pallone are split evenly between those with a positive opinion of him and those with a negative opinion.

Methodology: PowerPAC.org worked with Merriman River Group to survey 1,170 New Jersey registered Democrats from January 7^thto 9^th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-2.90%. The survey was conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Poll results can be found here. (“PowerPAC Poll on NJ Senate Race (PowerPoint File) PowerPAC”)

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Kirk Clay is Senior Advisor at PowerPac

PowerPAC is a national social justice advocacy organization focused on expanding democracy by increasing civic participation of people of color. In 2008, PowerPAC conducted a multi-state, multi-million dollar voter registration and mobilization program in 18 states, including New Jersey, during the 2008 Presidential election. In 2012, PowerPAC launched PAC+, a new SuperPAC for America’s New Majority.

VOTERS OF COLOR ARE CHANGING AMERICAN POLITICS

By Kirk Clay

Will Voters of Color Take Advantage of Their New Influence In Congress?

There are certainly plenty of reasons for America to celebrate the beginning of 2013. First, January is the month we recognize Martin Luther King Jr’s Birthday. Second, January represents a time in American history when President Abraham Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclamation. And finally next month we will witness the second inauguration of the nation’s first African American President.

This inauguration reminds us that in order to realize our dreams, we have to participate! A few weeks ago voters of color (VOC) joined other Americans to decide how the government will address the most pressing issues of our times. As the result of dramatic demographic changes, voters of color made the difference in many areas around the country—electing candidates to office who now have the political support to embrace progressive policies. These voters have become the leverage elected officials need to keep campaign promises and support an agenda that will have a far reaching impact on this nation.

In short, the next four years is about more than just a mandate. It is about who voted and the role they are going to play in politics. Much like the Tea Party in 2010, the new coalition of progressive whites, Latinos, African Americans, Asians, Native Americans, women, youth and unions are poised to change the way America invests in the economy, extracts and repurposes revenue, and ensures that the government continues to expand democracy to everyone living in America.

Also, the 113th Congress will have over 18 new members of color joining other progressive Congress members to shape our legislative process. They’re coming from states with significant VOC populations like California, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, and Texas.

So how will this affect Congress next year? The majority of the 18 new members are from districts where Democrats received outsized support from progressive whites and VOC in key precincts. This support from voters will help Congress members offset most of the political deficits they could face while compromising and deal making next year. This makes it difficult for the other side to sustain an obstructionist strategy without publically appearing to be “sore losers.”

Moreover, the President has the bully pulpit. Just like in the 2012 campaign, the new coalition of progressive voters makes it possible to expand the political map at critical points in the legislative cycle. For example, President Obama’s support in California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico will be a legislative firewall during the immigration negotiations. Simply put, a party will not survive in this new political landscape if it loses favorability from VOC by a 3 to 1 margin.

In the end, we have to remind ourselves that all politics are local. Any party that had success reaching unique pockets of voters during the 2012 campaign will have an advantage in 2013. They can easily overwhelm the other side by amplifying this new coalition’s influence. All it would take is a combination of traditional civic engagement tactics with 21st century data-driven technology. This strategy of micro-targeting voters by specific issues was used in Ohio and proved to be clutch—it delivered a powerful victory for the progressive coalition. For example, the VOC vote share increased to 19% of the 2012 electorate from 16% in 2008.

It’s time to get ready for the New Year, the new Congress, the new coalition of progressive voters and another historic moment. On January 21^st America honors Martin Luther King, Jr. as the world witnesses the inauguration of President Obama. It will also be a defining moment for people of color. For the first time since the passage of the Voting Rights Act, their votes had a profound influence on the political landscape of America. We now have a President who has the opportunity to govern with a more forward set of strategies. This makes it easier for us to support the policies we believe in. That’s popping the clutch.

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Kirk Clay is Senior Advisor at PowerPac

Trend Setting Election for Voters of Color, New Strategies That Work (kirkclay.com)

TREND SETTING ELECTION FOR VOTERS OF COLOR, NEW STRATEGIES THAT WORK

Purple America: Voter Density (1960-2004) (Photo credit: methodshop.com)

By Kirk Clay

A Little Capital Goes A Long Way, Investing In Voters of Color Is A Sure Bet

The question leading up to the 2012 presidential election was whether or not the voter turnout from President Obama’s coalition of progressive whites, Latinos, African Americans, Asians, Native Americans, women, youth and unions would be at the same level as in 2008. The answer is “YES!”

Judging from the preliminary numbers, it is clear that there are a number of important states and districts in which progressive whites and Voters of Color (VOC) helped to decide election results. This election cycle, we witnessed the effect of expanding the electorate. Imagine what could happen in 2013, 2014, and 2016 if we continue to push every eligible voter to register and turnout? We could see major changes in Congress as well as state legislatures.

No longer should we portray progressive whites and VOC as incidental to the broader sphere of American politics. Their influences on the election results are validated by evidence-based demographic data which clearly demonstrates that consistently high VOC turnout levels produce reliable results. It’s also unmistakable that these turnout levels are connected to well-funded systematic political structure powered by evidence based data.

These voters lit the torch that led the Democrats to victories in races for Congress, Senate, and the White House. This isn’t just happenstance. With adequate resources, organizations began to connect the dots in late 2010. They pushed vintage campaign models for civic engagement into the 21^st Century by building powerful political machines which utilized state-of-the art technology.

It is time for both parties to recognize that the future is here. The old strategy of “securing the independent voters in the last two weeks” did not pan out for many candidates this election. It seems that the strategy of expanding the electorate to include more progressive whites and VOC proved to be a much more durable foundation for building a coalition rather than relying on swing voters. President Obama dropped independents in most states like Ohio, Nevada, and New Mexico but won each state with 50%, 52%, and 53% of the vote respectfully. Even when his opponent began to gain momentum after the first debate, the President never trailed in these key states.

We believe that the pending certified results will show that voters of color made up 25% of the electorate nationally and at least 19% in 27 states– a dramatic increase from 2008. For the first time, Latinos were 10% of all voters and supported the President by 71%; African Americans were 13% of all voters and 93% voted for the incumbent, and Asians were 3% of all voters and well over 72% backed the Democrats.

On the ground, the political environment was similar to 2006 when wedge issues became a way to contrast the candidates. Just like in 2006, this strategy seems to have backfired on the GOP. Comparable to the 2006 election, the Democrats gained a foothold in the Senate by winning 80% of the competitive Senate races. They defeated moderate Senate Republicans in Hawaii, New Mexico and Virginia. They successfully defended gains from 2006 in Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Democrats won a majority of all votes cast in House races, gained eight seats in the House, gained 170 more state legislative seats nationwide and took over eight state legislative chambers including complete control of Colorado.

At the state level, progressive whites and VOC provided the momentum to help Democrats win seven of eight tossup House races in California and all three tossups in Arizona. Also, they gave the Democrats key wins in CA-36, FL-9, FL-26, and TX-23.

Nevada provides a good example of the impact that Latinos, African Americans and Asians had as the result of investing in their increased civic participation. The state already gained a congressional seat and an Electoral College vote as the result of the 2010 U.S. census which pointed to 28% of the citizen voting age population being VOC. Voters of color represented 26% of the electorate in 2008, increased to 29% in 2010 and jumped to 33% in 2012. Census data shows that places like North Las Vegas grew by 87% to 216,961 residents of which over 46,000 were key VOC.

There is no doubt that the fundamentals of elections have changed. The beneficiaries of the civil rights movement have finally gained a foothold on political equality, uniting their collective guiding beliefs. The idea that “you have to be a friend to get a friend” will continue to reveal opportunities to work together towards creating an inclusive social, cultural, and economic apparatus. The fact is, if we invest political resources in this coalition, America will experience a positive return. That’s popping the clutch.

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Kirk Clay is Senior Advisor at PowerPac

Donna Brazile: On Election Day, Republicans Suffered Consequences of Voter Suppression Strategy (huffingtonpost.com)

YOUNG VOTERS OF COLOR, DRIVING HOME THE FACTS OF LIFE

By Kirk Clay

Young Voters of Color Could Be the Sweet Spot in Ohio, Virginia and New Jersey

Last week I had the privilege of keynoting the Toledo NAACP’s 99th Freedom Fund Dinner. The event attracted tons of media and more than 700 attendees. In the audience sat Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur, Mayor Michael Bell, loads of council persons, and plenty of candidates. It was a tremendous occasion and it felt good being home talking to hard working people who live outside of the beltway.

While in Toledo I was able catch up with a number of old friends, including a buddy from high school who I played ball with. We talked about our children and the “good old days.” He teased me about the 1964 Rambler I drove. We laughed about how the passenger side floorboard had rusted out and no one wanted to ride shotgun when it rained. We talked about the places we would go and how owning our first car gave us a sense of empowerment.

He mentioned how Ohio’s young workers have and always will rely on the auto industry. As voters, they know what it means to have family members working over fifty-five hours a week on a Jeep Liberty line in Toledo. Maybe that’s why they’re so disappointed about politicians falsely attacking an American institution like Jeep. The auto industry supports 1 of every 8 jobs in Ohio and many of these jobs are important for young job-seekers.

After talking with him, I started to wonder what the long term effects of their Jeep attacks would be. Would they widen the gap with young Voters of Color (VOC) on Election Day? Would it solidify the Democrat’s lead in Ohio for 2012 and also become a hurdle for the GOP in New Jersey and Virginia next year?

Looking at Gallup’s latest study, it seems that we are on track to have a similar electorate as 2008 where the youth made up 18% of the vote. As witnessed on the state level in 2008, an energized young VOC electorate gave President Obama the victory in Ohio, Virginia, and New Jersey. This could be clutch for the Democrats in 2012 and 2013.

While voters under 30 were 17% of the electorate for both Ohio and New Jersey in 2008, that number dropped for New Jersey to 9% in 2009. The same is true for young voters in Virginia; they were 21% of the electorate in 2008 and only 10% in 2009.

Why? A substantial number of young VOC decided to stay home and as a result the Democrats were unsuccessful in retaining the 2008 momentum in 2009.

A recent Harvard Institute of Politics study demonstrates the possible impact for 2012 and 2013. The President leads his challenger among 18-29 year old African Americans 91%-6% and Latinos 73%-13%. More importantly, 59% of African Americans and 31% of Latinos are enthusiastic about voting on November 6. Young voters trust President Obama more than his challenger to deal with “major issues” like immigration reform 45% – 25%. Among young women, Romney loses on issues of concern 53% – 20%.

These numbers are going to be even more critical in November of 2013 for state gubernatorial races. In places like New Jersey where Democrats currently outnumber Republicans by 10 points, 59% of voters under 30 now say that they will not vote for Governor Christie. Note that VOC are 31% of New Jersey’s citizen voting age population and they comprised 28% of the electorate in 2008.

Adding to that, Hudson county population grew by 4% to 634,266 and Jersey City population increased 3% to 247,597. This is a solid majority Latino, African American, and Asian American city and has well over 95,000 key VOC. Therefore, conservatives may have a tough time matching their ’09 bump with policies that center around the “virtues of selfishness.” In these blue-collar states, economic patriotism is multifaceted and far more complex than a bumper sticker policy.

Looking deeper I began to realize how young people everywhere are positively impacted by the automobile industry. For many of us in Toledo, owning a car provided the sense of independence we needed to become responsible and effective citizens. If you were lucky enough to have a family member who worked for General Motors, you not only benefited from their labor but their product as well.

Plus, watching our family members go to work every day gave us a sense of pride and passion for building things with our own hands. That’s probably why the auto bailout is so important for young voters in Ohio and other states.

It’s always a momentous occasion when a young person drives for the first time as well as votes for the first time. For many young people, these are two of the first meaningful investments they will make in their own future and independence. Not to mention that buying a car is one of the largest purchases made by young people.

As Americans we believe that our politicians should match that seriousness in word as well as deed. They should defend our institutions as well as our democratic traditions. That’s popping the clutch.

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Kirk Clay is Senior Advisor at PowerPac

The Tale of Two Electorates: Ohio and New Jersey (politic365.com)

THE TALE OF TWO ELECTORATES, OHIO AND NEW JERSEY TELLTALE SIGNS

Voters of Color May Impact New Jersey’s 2013 Governor’s Race

English: The African American Museum in Cleveland (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

By Kirk Clay

Holy Toledo, Ohio has become a bellwether for American political trends. Can you believe that the President has solidified a lead in the once elusively red state? As the saying goes, so goes Ohio so goes the nation. All it took was a modern day “Lunch Pail / Hard Hat Coalition” which includes progressive Whites, Latinos, African Americans, Asians, Native Americans, Women, Young Voters, and Unions. Amazingly the President has never trailed Romney in the buckeye state.

Recently, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie tried his hand at helping the GOP connect with Ohioans. It didn’t work. It seems that the re-elect’s recent endorsement from New Jersey vanguard Bruce Springsteen connected with blue-collar voters better than the “Christie Ohio Tour.” This highlights the impact this coalition will have in November 2012 and 2013.

As this election season winds down, Chris Christie is at the top of the list of candidates who will feel the impact of November’s results when their names appear on the ballot in 2013. For starters, the presidential election has pitted Christie’s regressive “47%” style of conservative policies against a surging “all-inclusive” progressive style of polices. Voters aren’t buying it. They don’t trust Romney and next year voters are going to be suspicious of all Romney supporters. His positions on issues like Obamacare, Medicare and the auto bailout will linger through 2013.

These kinds of positions worked for Christie in 2009 before voters had a chance to notice the difference in priorities between the two parties. Now, we are starting to see the effects on voters in Ohio and New Jersey. Also, it’s fair to say that Christie’s highly visible role in this Presidential election may have exposed possible weaknesses that could damage his re-election bid. A recent poll from Eagleton Institute of Politics underscored how serious of an issue this may be for Christie. According to the study:

• Close to 57% of New Jersey voters support the Obamacare court decision;
• independents are in support 56% to 35%;
• many Voter of Color (VOC) including 77% of African Americans support the decision;
• 61% of young people were happy law was upheld;
• and 69% of New Jersey residents reject the GOP’s plan to voucherize Medicare.

Adding to that, 47% of voters say that it is time for a new Governor. Christie’s re-election support with independents is down 5 points from August. Meanwhile, the same poll shows his unfavorable number among all voters up two points. It’s telling that women only give him a 43% positive with 59% of voters under 30 saying they will not vote for him. To top it off he has lost support from workers earning between $100k and $150k with 51% wanting to vote for someone else.

What are the dynamics at play in New Jersey and why is the Governor having such a hard time locking in New Jersey voters? Political experts are beginning to notice a philosophical and political trend that may give us an idea. It seems that voters in Springsteen’s New Jersey are fundamentally different from Christie’s. This holds true for Ohio as well. It’s not incidental that voters in both states embrace policies supporting working class men and women and reject policies that center around the “virtues of selfishness.” Adding to the mix, there are sizable shifts in New Jersey’s population creating substantial demographic trends.

In particular, Governor Christie received 9% of the African American vote and 32% of the Latino vote in 2009 when he flipped a blue state to red. This was a significant factor given that in 2005 the Democrat candidate won 98% and 68% of the African American and Latino vote respectively. We see the impact of voters of color (VOC) when you look at Middlesex County where the Democrat candidate was defeated for the first time in decades 47% to 45%. Note that the population in that county, which includes New Brunswick, has grown 8% and is now 10% African American, 18% Latino, and 21% Asian Pacific Islander.

This dynamic played a significant role in New Jersey where VOC were 25% of the electorate in 2009 but 30% in 2010. Census data shows cities like New Brunswick growing 2.3% to 55,181 and now having well over 14,000 key VOC on the voter rolls.

Looking forward to November 2013, the fundamentals are beginning to take shape. Though no one can predict what will happen in the next year, one thing is true — New Jersey’s electorate has already begun to demonstrate the impact of their changing demographics. Therefore, any candidate with an effective strategy to embrace the heart of the “Lunch Pail / Hard Hat Coalition” will find themselves well positioned to shock the political world.

There is no doubt that Latino and African American voters will impact this and future elections. The truth is, they have always been significant threads in the political fabric of this nation and continue to become more valuable every election. That’s probably the best part of our democracy; our collective vote represents our guiding beliefs. Everyone has one ballot, it doesn’t matter where you came from, your zip code or how you got here. We all are worthy of respect and deserve the right to cast and have our ballots counted. Likewise, putting self-interest before compassion is not an American value, it’s selfish. Being selfish doesn’t just prove that you lack a sense of empathy; it proves that you lack common sense as well. That’s popping the CLUTCH.

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Kirk Clay is Senior Advisor at PowerPac

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