Tag: Election 2022

A look back at how we got here….

There are certainly plenty of reasons for America to celebrate the beginning of the winter season:

1. This is the time we recognize Martin Luther King Jr’s Birthday.
2. Winter represents a time in American history when President Abraham Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclamation.
3. This is the season we witnessed the inauguration of the nation’s first African American President.

That inauguration reminded us that to realize our dreams; we have to participate! A year ago, voters of color (VOC) joined other Americans to decide how the government would address the most pressing issues of our times. As the result of dramatic demographic changes, voters of color made the difference in many areas around the country—electing candidates to office who now have the political support to embrace progressive policies. These voters have become the leverage elected officials need to keep campaign promises and support a plan that will have a far-reaching impact on this nation.

In short, the next few years are about more than just a mandate. It is about who voted and the role they are going to play in politics. Much like the Tea Party in 2010, the new coalition of progressive whites, Latinos, African Americans, Asians, Native Americans, women, youth, and unions are poised to change the way America invests in the economy. Also, how we extract and repurpose revenue ensures that the government continues expanding democracy to everyone living in America.

Like the winter of 2012, when Congress had over 18 new members of color joining other progressive Congress members to shape our legislative process. They came from states with significant VOC populations like California, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, and Texas.

So how did that affect Congress? Most of the 18 new members were from districts where Democrats received outsized support from progressive whites and VOC in key precincts. This support from voters helped Congress members offset most of the political deficits they could’ve faced while compromising and deal-making. This made it difficult for the other side to sustain an obstructionist strategy without publically appearing to be “sore losers.”

Moreover, the President had the bully pulpit. Like in the 2012 campaign, the new coalition of progressive voters made it possible to expand the political map at critical points in the legislative cycle. For example, President Obama’s support in California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico built a legislative firewall during policy negotiations. Simply put, a party will not survive in this new political landscape if it loses favorability from VOC by a 3 to 1 margin.

In the end, we have to remind ourselves that all politics are local. Any party that successfully reached unique pockets of voters during the 2022 campaign will have an advantage in 2023. They can easily overwhelm the other side by amplifying this new coalition’s influence. All it would take is a combination of traditional civic engagement tactics with 21st-century data-driven technology. This strategy of micro-targeting voters by specific issues was used in Ohio in 2012 and proved to be impactful — it delivered a decisive victory for the progressive coalition. For example, the VOC vote share increased to 19% of the 2012 electorate from 16% in 2008.

It’s time to get ready for the next generation, the new Congress, the new coalition of progressive voters, and another historic moment. This winter America honors Martin Luther King, Jr. as the world remembers the inauguration of President Obama. It was also a defining moment for people of color. For the first time since the passage of the Voting Rights Act, their votes had a profound influence on the political landscape of America. We now have an opportunity to govern with a more forward set of strategies. This makes it easier for students of color to support the policies we believe in. #2R1WM

“Most fear stems from sin; to limit one’s sins, one must assuredly limit one’s fear, thereby bringing more peace to one’s spirit.” – Marvin Gaye.

I believe young voters of color could be the sweet spot in civic engagement next year. Last week I had the privilege of connecting with a young NAACP organizer. We discussed strategies to bounce back from this global pandemic, economic, civil, and human rights crisis. He asked if we’ll ever see the kinds of organizing training that was common pre-pandemic. “You know the mass teaching events that attracted tons of media and thousands of attendees? With an audience that included members of Congress, mayors, and local councilpersons?” 

While in those trainings, a person could catch up with old friends, distant colleagues and meet up with mentors. We would talk about the movement and discuss ways to address civic empowerment issues like redistricting and receive powerful advice. “When life presents more challenges than you can handle, delegate to God. He not only has the answer, He is the answer.”

Young activists have and always will rely on mentorship. As voters, they also benefit from a different kind of mentorship — knowing family members working over fifty-five hours a week and learning about the issues they deal with. Maybe that’s why they get so disappointed with the current redistricting process. While politicians choose who will vote for them, young people realize that they and their hard-working family members are being left out of the process.

What the long-term effects of leaving young people out of the process? Will this widen the gap with young Voters of Color (VOC) on Election Day? Will it solidify positive movement or become a hurdle for young voters of color next year?

Looking at studies from key districts and the last round of redistricting, we are on track to have a similar electorate as the previous decade, where the youth could make up 18% of the vote. As witnessed last year, an energized young VOC electorate can be the difference in multiple races. This is key for understanding the next decade of voting results.

For example, while voters under 30 were 17% of the electorate for both Ohio and New Jersey in 2008, that number dropped for New Jersey to 9% in 2009. The same is true for young voters in Virginia; they were 21% of the electorate in 2008 and only 10% in 2009. Why? A substantial number of young VOCs decided to stay home.

What is the possible impact on future elections? If a politician leads their challenger among 18-29-year-old African Americans 91%-6% and Latinos 73%-13%. More importantly, if 59% of African Americans and 31% of Latinos are enthusiastic about voting, the political landscape becomes favorable for NAACP supporters. If the base of support from young voters on “major issues” like immigration reform is at least 45% – 25%, then they will see substantial support from young voters of color. 

These numbers will be even more critical in places like New Jersey, where VOC is 31% of New Jersey’s citizen voting-age population. They comprised 28% avg. of the electorate in recent elections. By comparison, in 2010, Hudson county’s population grew by 4% to 634,266, and Jersey City’s population increased by 3% to 247,597. This is a majority Latino, African American, and Asian American city and has well over 95,000 essential VOC.

Looking deeper, you can see how engaging young people during redistricting can positively impact the future of civic engagement. For many, voting provides a sense of independence, responsibility, and purpose. In addition, if politicians are lucky enough to gain their support, they benefit from their vote and their ideas.

It’s always a momentous occasion when a young person votes for the first time. This is one of the first meaningful investments they will make for their future. The funny thing is that it will be a massive investment in America’s future as well. 

To be continued …

Kirk Clay is the President of Capitol View Advisors — a collaborative investing and acting on its values in creative and strategic ways to connect communities with the information and resources they need to support and further their aspirations.